Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 81848.397963 86381.097502 90913.629481 95782.920161 100862.773659 106002.801061 111593.632683
2026-01-25 74345.224664 81250.793638 88348.682735 96179.878510 104567.998665 113273.316041 122980.976175
2026-02-01 68657.834854 77153.372999 86077.949156 96132.458500 107124.521666 118756.316942 131975.350600
2026-02-08 64787.999108 74520.470847 84931.718299 96865.195041 110131.636618 124393.584898 140850.757867
2026-02-15 61129.365478 71782.508601 83363.124284 96839.547328 112041.514127 128609.173320 147979.445066
2026-02-22 58882.884544 70420.854110 83141.943120 98143.024823 115280.900818 134180.315590 156527.326520
2026-03-01 56677.006646 68942.619320 82643.912071 98998.880798 117901.381142 138971.846898 164141.361927
2026-03-08 54168.754806 66969.324693 81447.479822 98930.491295 119358.873704 142360.840917 170100.665300
2026-03-15 52135.318607 65441.397115 80667.283484 99251.322280 121186.600585 146115.165540 176441.815024
2026-03-22 50978.958374 64882.398160 80960.982192 100777.161671 124380.635748 151429.023978 184592.220283
2026-03-29 49705.726677 64114.418513 80948.023276 101888.844689 127049.804171 156112.128464 192009.204041
2026-04-05 48340.752782 63170.716280 80668.644146 102632.546238 129244.498737 160216.876045 198744.576658
2026-04-12 46723.374368 61873.637620 79930.302151 102803.133320 130751.459580 163528.353424 204590.755214
2026-04-19 45244.076931 60694.583860 79289.944901 103053.758203 132328.017231 166912.313243 210533.796759
2026-04-26 43690.165281 59364.458174 78411.908334 102965.229438 133453.908819 169731.136593 215790.606497
2026-05-03 42644.383104 58638.101400 78248.657956 103731.402118 135607.488986 173785.470906 222552.107782
2026-05-10 41286.884882 57463.870117 77480.343560 103702.309409 136746.755110 176586.015364 227783.674254
2026-05-17 40652.789882 57200.128078 77842.228658 105080.077091 139631.333810 181531.527454 235666.644490
2026-05-24 39843.418774 56676.615268 77847.208926 105984.799819 141911.816452 185733.860103 242652.671513
2026-05-31 38647.560897 55604.459951 77112.185924 105912.477101 142935.163090 188364.273268 247692.403156
2026-06-07 37687.287255 54815.153835 76715.942752 106251.641210 144463.536317 191617.101222 253513.660280
2026-06-14 37309.149479 54792.153553 77307.946057 107864.542500 147621.185209 196925.138034 261936.337436
2026-06-21 36770.173517 54531.497687 77572.072362 109039.500295 150214.212156 201531.455324 269502.559930